A trade war between Uganda and Kenya is starting to look like a forever war -- a quagmire with no end in sight, no clear path to a resolution and more disruptions for an already struggling regional economy badly hit by COVID-19. Kenya's move last week to question the origin of Uganda’s products, even those with valid certificates of origin has sparked outrage with Uganda's body of manufacturers threatening to retaliate by banning Kenyan goods from entering Ugandan market if the matter is not resolved by end of December 2020.

Uganda Manufacturer's Association has made clear it clear that it intends to seek redress from the East African Court of Justice (EACJ). Goods denied entry into Kenyan market include poultry products, liquid petroleum gas canisters and sugar. Kenya is one of Uganda’s largest trading partners. Kenyan exports into Uganda have increased from $1.1 billion in 2017 to $1.2 billion in 2018 and 2019. The Ugandan Manufacturers could have far-reaching consequences to the trade and trade balance between the two EAC countries.

The trade war comes at a time when the political will of East African integration that calls for East African common market and the political federation is at it's weakest. Kenya's trade barriers are increasingly seen as an obstacle that water down the EAC Common Market protocol that facilitates free movement of goods and services across the borders. Kenya remains tight-lipped on the bewildering accusations of such unfair trade practices that breach East African common market commitments. This standoff between Uganda and Kenya may cause ripple effects across the East African as members of the community are likely to retaliate in the face of these unfair trade practices that undermine the region's frustrating path to integration.